Does A-Rod Stay or Go?

The guess here is A-Rod stays put
Ken Davidoff
October 18, 2007

It was last Nov. 10, and the baseball world buzzed with the news that J.D. Drew had opted out of his contract, late the previous night, with the Dodgers. Drew, with a well-known reputation as talented yet soft, gave up $33 million from 2007 through 2009.

An American League general manager, opining on the condition of anonymity, told me, "Boras has to have another deal in place. Otherwise, he can't walk away from that kind of money." This GM was far from the only official to voice such an opinion, and I was far from the only reporter to hear it.

On Dec. 5, Scott Boras, Drew's agent, stood in an Orlando hotel, surrounded by media at baseball's winter meetings, and announced that Drew and the Red Sox had agreed in principle on a five-year, $70-million contract.

Keep that in mind as we move forward on the saga of Alex Rodriguez versus the Yankees.

Keep your eyes on the prize. Don't get distracted by the noise coming from both sides.

Let's practice:

Brian Cashman: "We're not going to negotiate with A-Rod if he opts out."

Boras: "A-Rod is responsible for the Yankee Stadium attendance and the YES ratings, and he also invented liquid soap."

You (hands over ears): "I'm not listening! I'm not listening!"

It's a moot point, essentially, concerning whether the Yankees would pursue A-Rod as a free agent - although it was interesting, yesterday, for Cashman to describe the thinking that the Yankees would not pursue A-Rod if he opts out as "accurate and definitive," now that he has the backing of team ownership.

If A-Rod opts out, then he probably has a pretty good idea where he'll wind up.

In other words, you don't walk away from $81 million over three years unless you know you're going to have a soft landing.

Ethicists might call this "tampering." I prefer terms like "reading the market" and "communicating through back channels." And not for a second should you portray Boras as uniquely evil, were he to resort to such tactics.

"Back channels" are a way of life in our world, aren't they? As long as things are kept discreet, then there's no harm, no foul.

There was a media campaign of sorts, last year, to allege that Boras tampered with the Red Sox concerning Drew. The campaign went nowhere, as the Dodgers, despite some anonymous rumblings, never lodged an official complaint.

There's a perfectly logical explanation. Why would any team want to press the issue? Why expose your own closet to such scrutiny?

And if the Yankees start crying "Tampering!" upon an A-Rod opt-out and exit - and I bet they will, if that happens - let's all remind them that they gladly let Randy Johnson negotiate a $10-million extension with the Diamondbacks last January, even though they hadn't yet completed the trade with Arizona. And that, back in the middle of 2005, their vice president of player personnel Billy Connors reached out to a friend of Leo Mazzone, then the Braves' pitching coach, to jump-start the idea of Mazzone joining the Yankees' coaching staff in 2006.

The A-Rod equation figures to be pretty simple: Sometime in the next couple of weeks, once the Yankees have finalized their manager situation - and yesterday sure felt positive for Joe Torre - the Yankees will make a monster extension offer to A-Rod.

I'm going to guess that the package will be six years and $216 million, on top of the three years and $81 million already owed A-Rod. That will make it $297 million, and George Steinbrenner long has had an aversion to round numbers like $300 million.

Figure that, in the days after the World Series, Boras will tell A-Rod what kind of numbers he can expect from other clubs, and from whom. Then A-Rod will decide - at the very last possible moment - whether to sign an extension with the Yankees, never entering free agency, or bid farewell to the Yankees for another club.

My hunch is that A-Rod never becomes a free agent, that he'll sign an extension around that $297 million figure. In which case, the "We won't negotiate during free agency" chatter will have been wasted breath.

But you won't have wasted your time thinking about it, and you'll feel great about yourselves.

No way Yankees will negotiate
BY KAT O'BRIEN | kat.obrien@newsday.com
10:02 PM EDT, October 17, 2007

Brian Cashman left no wiggle room Wednesday in reiterating that the Yankees will not negotiate with Alex Rodriguez if he exercises the opt-out clause in his contract next month.

The Yankees general manager has repeatedly said that it would be his recommendation not to negotiate with Rodriguez if he opts out of the contract, as they would lose the $22-million subsidy from the Rangers over the next three seasons. However, Cashman acknowledged last week that even though he is the GM, other people have stakes in the decision (i.e. owner George Steinbrenner and his sons, Hank and Hal).

But Wednesday after meeting with the three Steinbrenners and other members of the Yankees brain trust, Cashman said the team absolutely does not plan to negotiate with Rodriguez if he opts out. Another source familiar with talks said the Steinbrenners are on board with that.


"Yes, I can affirm that," Cashman said. "If Alex Rodriguez opts out of his contract, we will not participate in his free agency. That is accurate and that is definitive."

Rodriguez has three years and $81 million remaining on the 10-year, $252-million contract he signed with the Rangers in December 2000. He and his wife, Cynthia, spent the last several days meeting with agent Scott Boras in Newport Beach, Calif.

Boras has been talking up Rodriguez's value in recent days. He described A-Rod, who hit 54 homers and drove in 156 runs this season, as an IPN player, which stands for "iconic value," "production value" and "network value."

The Yankees are willing to give Rodriguez a lucrative contract extension. However, Boras can't get other teams involved in negotiations unless Rodriguez opts out. And he needs to keep the Yankees involved to drive the dollars up on what could be a historically large contract -- the second of Rodriguez's career.

The Yankees drew a line in the sand Wednesday, though. Rodriguez will only return to the Yankees if he decides not to opt out (thus leaving tens, if not hundreds of millions of dollars on the table) or if he agrees to an extension with the Yankees.

Mariano Rivera and Jorge Posada were also discussed Wednesday, a source said. Both can be free agents, but the club wants both back.

Staff writer Jim Baumbach contributed to this story from Tampa.

:hghost:

A-Smart A-Rod will go........

What Will A-Rod Get?

The Yankees have ten days beyond the World Series to sign Alex Rodriguez to an extension, so there is a decent chance that this will get settled very soon. (I think that the Yankees and A-Rod will part ways, but I will not be surprised if he stays.) So, I thought it would be a good time to go ahead and make a prediction as to what he will get. And I invite you to do so as well in the comments.

I’ve run a few numbers based on his performance over the past few seasons, his expected aging decline, and the anticipated rise in revenues over the course of the contract.

My prediction: 7 years, $244 million; approximately $34.8 million/year.

What do you think? The person who gets the closest wins a signed copy of The Baseball Economist. If you want to brand it with an asterisk, I don’t care, you can do so upon delivery.

Contracts can vary along a few variables;therefore, determining who is “the closest” is a bit difficult. All predictions must include a contract length, total value, and approximate annual value, but I will decide the winner based on the per-year prediction. Ties (or near-ties) in per-year predictions will then be broken by length and total value of the contract predictions.

* One entry per person.
* You must submit a valid e-mail address, which will not be published, so that I can award the prize.
* Contract predictions are limited to contracts that have not yet been submitted to the contest in millions of dollars to one decimal place for per-year estimates and to zero decimal places for total contract value.
* Predictions should include only the specified dollar values listed above (see the format of my prediction). Commentary is not allowed.
* Entries must be submitted prior to the end of the World Series.
* I reserve the right to exclude the participation of anyone.
* Because these contracts can get complicated, I am the final judge of the winner and I reserve the right to adjust for contract complexities and unforeseen events as I choose.

Addendum: Predictions are for 2008 and beyond. If he signs an extension with the Yankees, the total value will be the sum of the rest of his original contract plus the additional compensation he receives with an extension. The annual salary will be this sum divided by seasons after 2007.

Further Addendum: Please, do not include commentary in your prediction. It slows down the moderation.

Even Further Addendum: Remember, let’s keep this simple. No team options, no backloading, no “plus incentives”, etc. Three numbers based on the dollars guaranteed to A-Rod if he signs the deal.

Posted by JC in General, Moneyball, Contests

As long as the Tigers don't get him, I don't care where he plays! We sure as hell don't need him! Our Team Rocks!



TIGERS WILL BE THE CHAMPS IN 08! YEAH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Looks like STAY....and the NewJoke crowd hates him again.....

Damnit Alex! Anywhere else would have been better (except Boston....then I'd cheer for NY over BOS).

He should have went to Boston

Stays....DAMMIT!!

I guess he stays. This thread can close.