Doubting Detroit: Why the Tigers Won't Win the AL Central

Doubting Detroit: Why the Tigers Won't Win the AL Central

by Jon Sladek (Contributor) 3 comments Filed Under: MLB, AL Central, Detroit Tigers
Icon“Disregard what I said about us winning the division. The Tigers acquiring Willis and Cabrera sealed the deal for them, son of a (expletive)!”

That's a quote from an email I received from my friend Shnydes, who's currently serving a military deployment in Afghanistan. He's the only guy I know who loves the Indians as much as I do.

Contact from military members in hot zones isn't always consistent, but after serving a tour in Iraq and in the middle of another in Afghanistan, Shyndes was as distraught as I'd ever head him.

Well, I’m going to tell you, the reader, exactly what I told Shnydes in a spirited response.

Not only am I not giving the Tigers the World Series yet—I’m not even convinced they'll win the American League Central.

At this point, any Tigers fans reading this are tearing their clothes and gnashing their teeth...so let's get right to the flaws.



Starting Rotation

Let's not ignore the obese circus clown in the room—these five gentlemen are a big part of the reason Los Tigres came up short of the postseason last year.

Unfortunately, I don’t see much improvement.

In his piece about the Marlins trade, Detroit columnist Mitch Albom wrote, “The Tigers' lineup—with Cabrera, Renteria, Guillen, Magglio Ordonez, Gary Sheffield, Placido Polanco, Pudge Rodriguez, Jacque Jones and Curtis Granderson—is shaping up to be a brick-smasher. And with Willis, Justin Verlander, Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson and recently re-signed Kenny Rogers, well, nothing shabby about that rotation.”

On the contrary, I find plenty “shabby” about that rotation.

Once you get past perennial Cy Young-candidate Justin Verlander, you have an ancient Kenny Rogers (43 years old) and the mediocre duo of Nate Robertson and Jeremy Bonderman.

For five years, I’ve been hearing about Bonderman’s potential—but now he's 25 and has posted a career record of 56-62 with a 4.78 ERA.

Robertson’s career numbers are eerily similar to Bonderman's...only he's five years older.

That brings us to the Golden Child, Dontrelle Willis. I hate to have to be the one to say it, but the D-Train looks derailed.

Since his one outstanding 2005 season, Willis has seen win total decrease from 22 in ’05 to 12 in ’06 to 10 last season. His ERA has ballooned from 2.63 to 3.87 to an embarrassing 5.17. His innings and strikeouts have gone down each year, while his walks are up.

And as if that weren't enough evidence, Willis served up 29 homers last year. What's the over/under on how many bombs he’ll surrender to superior American League sluggers—35? 40?



Bullpen

Only one of Detroit's three bullpen mainstays is reliable—and he spent most of his second season on the disabled list.

If Joel Zumaya can stay healthy, he could be either a great setup man or a solid closer if (when?) Todd Jones craps out.

The second scenario, of course, would leave the Tigers without a dominant setup man.

The Tigers team ERA was 4.57 in 2006, good for 18th in baseball. All told, I think they should have done more to address their pitching.



Lineup

Okay, I’m not foolish enough to say the lineup will fail to score plenty of runs—but will the Tigers be a team of nine All-Stars as some have claimed?

The first concern is age. Detroit is relying on some creaky old bones to hold up for six months.

Gary Sheffield is 39, and has played just 172 games the last two seasons. He only hit .265 last year when he was healthy.

Pudge Rodriguez will collect Gold Gloves until he retires based on reputation, but at the plate the guy is done. Don’t believe me? Look at the 36-year-old’s stats.

The Tigers are also counting on several guys to repeat career years. With the exception of Barry Bonds, who hit his prime at age 37, hitters in their 30s tend to get worse, not better.

Magglio Ordonez, who will be 34 on Opening Day, hit an impossible .363 in ’06. Think he'll do that again? Newly acquired Edgar Renteria hit .332 in the pathetic National League. The odds are he'll return to somewhere near his .291 career average this year—and he cost Detroit a tremendous young pitching prospect in Jair Jurrjens.

Jurrjens shut down the Tribe twice last year—thank goodness he's gone.

The rest of the Tigers lineup should produce big numbers, but this is a team that finished third in baseball in runs scored last year with 887. That only propelled them to an 88-win season.



I applaud the Tigers front office for being proactive. If nothing else, it's a sharp contrast to the “stand-pat” strategy of Indians GM Mark Shapiro, who comically still believes Travis Hafner to be a big-league cleanup hitter.

But imagine if the Tigers had made a deal to land former Oakland ace Dan Haren instead of trading for Cabrera and Willis. They still would've had a solid lineup—and their rotation would have featured two Cy Young-caliber starters.

Gee, that sounds familiar. Isn’t that how somebody else won the Central last year?

While I have to agree with him on the starting rotation, why does everyone think the NL is Little League?

Rogers, Bonderman and Robertson will pitch like they did in 06! Bullpen will get the job done and our offense is second to none. GO TIGERS!

1.

Quote :

Gary Sheffield is 39, and has played just 172 games the last two seasons. He only hit .265 last year when he was healthy.

But he was not healthy most of the year considering what the surgeons found... corrected

2.

Quote :

That brings us to the Golden Child, Dontrelle Willis. I hate to have to be the one to say it, but the D-Train looks derailed.

Again, he has been overworked and it shows with each year getting worse. He also addmitted to pitching hurt last year, but he kept it quiet being the #1 pitcher in the rotation he kept pitching tired. He said that really hurt him pressure wise. Except for last year, his ERA is better than average. (And remember, there is interleague play twice a year, so he has pitched against AL batters.) His skill, and the change to a team he really wants to pitch for, should do wonders mentally!

3.
I agree, bullpen is still bad.

4.

Quote :

Magglio Ordonez, who will be 34 on Opening Day, hit an impossible .363 in ’06. Think he'll do that again?

Yes, he wants to beat A. Rod. And with the improved batting lineup, he does not want to look bad. He also played with a heel or leg injury last year that he said is better.

5.
I like how he did not talk about Cabrera. A younger, thin infilder is better. And we improved at 1st base also.

6.

Quote :

I applaud the Tigers front office for being
proactive. If nothing else, it's a sharp contrast to the “stand-pat”
strategy of Indians GM Mark Shapiro, who comically still believes
Travis Hafner to be a big-league cleanup hitter.

He got that right, Indians are not a better team this year.

So, only time will tell. It seems his beloved Indians punked out when the going got tough. Where is their 2007 WS ring?

Haters and Indian fans......same old, same old!!

I still think D-train will have a great comback season, he is actually working out like the old time pitchers did. They were athletic.

bobrob2004 wrote:

While I have to agree with him on the starting rotation, why does everyone think the NL is Little League?

There's no DH therefore the hitters and pitchers are inferior.

It's obvious that Jake Peavy would probably be the 5th starter on even the Texas Rangers. Sure, he can do well in the NL but that's only because he pitches around the 8 real hitters and just makes all his outs against the pitcher

Looking at ERA+ is irrelevant because the NL is inferior. If a guy posts a 150 ERA+ in the NL the guy with a 100 ERA+ in the AL is more impressive because he faces tougher lineups so his ERA+ of course isn't as good (even though ERA+ is league adjusted)

Why's Miguel Cabrera do good there? Well look at some of the pitchers he faces:

• Jake Peavy
  
• John Smoltz
  
• Roy Oswalt
  
• Brandon Webb
  
• Cole Hamels
  
• etc.
  

Even I could hit .200 in the NL! I'll bet I could pitch with a sub-4.00 ERA - I'd be facing pitchers all the time after all!

The problem with this stupid argument is pitchers only get 2-3 PA a game. People act like there's 8 pitchers in every lineup. They say the #8 hitters in the NL suck, too (when compared to #8/9 AL hitters). I never understood that - just because you're batting in front of a pitcher doesn't mean you're any worse than the worst hitters on AL teams.

Let Pitchers Hit! BAN THE DH!

gs78 wrote:

Let Pitchers Hit! BAN THE DH!

I like the DH. It added 5 years to Willie Horton's career!!