Pudge Rodriguez

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October 7, 2007

Devotees of Detroit baseball have dissected the statistics and marked the trends, convinced that the numbers will reveal whether the Tigers should pick up Pudge Rodriguez's pricey option for 2008.

By now, we know the case well.

His strikeouts are up. His average, home runs and RBIs are down.

He's throwing out fewer baserunners. He's allowing more passed balls.

He had nine walks all year -- and a lower on-base percentage than Mike Hessman.

Look. We all know he's not the same player who won the American League Most Valuable Player Award in 1999, or the World Series in 2003, or your heart in 2004.

He turns 36 next month. He has caught more than 2,000 games. It's not fair to ask him to be the catcher he was even three years ago, and those who want to measure how far he has slipped are missing the point.

The relevant comparison is not the Rodriguez of '99, '03 or '04, but the Michael Barrett or Jason Kendall or Paul Lo Duca of '08.

And through those lens, Rodriguez looks really, really good.

Sure, it's reasonable to ask whether Rodriguez is worth an extra $10 million on next year's payroll. If you do, though, follow it with a question of equal significance.

If not Pudge, then who?

Unfortunately for Detroit, this year's market for free-agent catchers is not particularly robust -- especially considering the type of player the Tigers would seek.

In the last two years, Rodriguez has caught 123 and 127 games, respectively. Unless club officials decide on a split arrangement between two catchers, then Rodriguez's replacement would likely be asked to carry a similar workload.

And only three prospective free agents caught more than 120 games this year: Rodriguez, the Yankees' Jorge Posada and the Cubs' Kendall.

Three others caught between 90 and 120: the Padres' Barrett, the Mets' Lo Duca and the Rockies' Yorvit Torrealba. (Brad Ausmus, the former Tiger, caught 117 games this year but may sign a contract extension with the Astros, according to the Houston Chronicle.)

Let's assume that Detroit club officials restrict their list to the six players who caught more than 90 games this year: Rodriguez, Barrett, Kendall, Lo Duca, Posada and Torrealba.

Care to guess who threw out the highest percentage of runners among that group in 2007?

Yes. It was Pudge.

Rodriguez caught 30.9% of would-be base stealers this year. That's down from last season's mark (51.0%) and his career average (47.5%), but, again, he's still better than most everyday catchers.

So, unless the numbers are deceiving, Rodriguez would be one of the best available catchers, if not the best, when durability and arm strength are considered together.

And while he hardly walked this season -- and didn't hit for much power -- he still batted .281. At a premium defensive position, in a lineup where he wouldn't need to hit any higher than sixth, the Tigers ought to be satisfied with that.

Still, if they decline Rodriguez's option, here's one view of the aforementioned free-agent alternatives, ranked from most to least appealing.

• 1. Jorge Posada, Yankees: Posada seems likely to re-sign with New York. If he doesn't, though, he should be Detroit's first choice. He had a career offensive season and has a long history of calling games on baseball's biggest stage. Still, it's hard to imagine him wearing anything but pinstripes.

• 2. Yorvit Torrealba, Rockies: Torrealba has emerged, along with the surprising Rockies. He's athletic behind the plate and works well with pitchers. But he has had shoulder trouble and caught less than 20% of would-be base stealers this year. Torrealba, 29, is a .251 lifetime hitter.

• 3. Paul Lo Duca, Mets: His average dropped more than 40 points, from 2006 to 2007, but he's still a tough out. He's a good contact hitter (24 walks, 33 strikeouts this year) who could hit in the bottom third of Detroit's lineup. But his health is in doubt after an injury-plagued 2007.

• 4. Jason Kendall, A's/Cubs: Kendall's defensive reputation is based more on working well with pitchers than throwing out runners (15.3% this year). He hit three home runs in 373 games while playing with Oakland and batted .226 during his time with the A's this year. An American League club would probably need more production than that.

• 5. Michael Barrett, Cubs/Padres: He sparred with Cubs ace Carlos Zambrano in the dugout at Wrigley Field, which is not the sort of image a catcher wants to project in his walk year. He hit .226 with no home runs after a change-of-scenery trade to San Diego.

As if there weren't enough possible outcomes to consider with Rodriguez -- pick up the option, decline the option, or renegotiate the contract -- here is one more: The Tigers could, in theory, pick up the option and trade Rodriguez.

While there is no evidence to suggest Detroit is close to doing so, there is precedent for a club to consider that approach. Almost exactly one year ago, the New York Yankees picked up Gary Sheffield's $13-million option for 2007, only to trade him to the Tigers for three pitching prospects.

If Detroit club officials decide to pursue another catcher for 2008, this could be one way to avoid paying all of Rodriguez's $3-million buyout -- and end up with a player or players in return. Rodriguez's new team would then decide whether to offer him a contract extension, as the Tigers did with Sheffield last year.

Rodriguez, who has a limited no-trade clause, would have some say in where he ended up. The New York Mets are among the teams without a starting catcher signed for 2008.

Don't be surprised if you see Craig Monroe play against the Tigers 18 times next year. The Minnesota Twins are in the market for a leftfielder, and Monroe will likely be non-tendered by the Chicago Cubs. Monroe, a career .304 hitter at the Metrodome, would look for a one-year deal to reestablish his market value next season.

On the last day of the regular season, with his move to first base certain, Carlos Guillen was asked who would be on his short list to play shortstop for the Tigers in 2008. He provided three names: Cesar Izturis, Omar Vizquel and Jack Wilson.