SAM HOFF'S TIGERS 9 SEGMENT 2009 SEASON ANALYSIS

Mon 27 Apr 2009
The First Inning is over
Sam Hoff

Posted by shoff under Culture , Tigers
[3] Comments

A full baseball season can be broken into Nine 18-game segments. I have termed these 18-game segments as an “inning” of a season. In the past I have provided analysis of each “inning” at www.detroittigersweblog.com. For 2009, I am going to post the analysis on my own blog ww.samhoff.com.
Let’s compare the first inning of 2009 to the first inning from the last 3 years.

CLICK TITLE TO READ 1ST 18 GAME BREAKDOWN ANALYSIS

Mon 18 May 2009
The 2nd Inning is Over
Sam Hoff

Posted by shoff under Culture , Tigers
[2] Comments

A full baseball season can be broken into Nine 18-game segments. I have termed these 18-game segments as an “inning” of a season. In the past I have provided analysis of each “inning” at www.detroittigersweblog.com. For 2009, I am going to post the analysis on my own blog www.samhoff.com.

Let’s compare the first two innings of 2009:

CLICK TITLE TO READ 2ND 18 GAME BREAKDOWN ANALYSIS

Mon 8 Jun 2009
The 3rd Inning is Over
Sam Hoff
Posted by shoff under Culture , Tigers
[2] Comments

A full baseball season can be broken into Nine 18-game segments. I have termed these 18-game segments as an “inning” of a season. In the past I have provided analysis of each “inning” at www.detroittigersweblog.com. For 2009, I am going to post the analysis on my own blog www.samhoff.com.

Let’s compare the first three innings of 2009:

CLICK TITLE TO READ 3RD 18 GAME BREAKDOWN ANALYSIS

Sun 28 Jun 2009
The 4th Inning is Over
Sam Hoff

Posted by shoff under Culture , Tigers
[2] Comments

A full baseball season can be broken into Nine 18-game segments. I have termed these 18-game segments as an “inning” of a season. In the past I have provided analysis of each “inning” at www.detroittigersweblog.com. For 2009, I am going to post the analysis on my own blog www.samhoff.com.

Let’s compare the first four innings of 2009:

CLICK TITLE TO READ 4TH 18 GAME BREAKDOWN ANALYSIS

Mon 20 Jul 2009
The 5th Inning is Over
Sam Hoff

Posted by shoff under Culture , Tigers
No Comments


A full baseball season can be broken into Nine 18-game segments. I have termed these 18-game segments as an “inning” of a season. In the past I have provided analysis of each “inning” at www.detroittigersweblog.com. For 2009, I am going to post the analysis on my own blog www.samhoff.com.

Let’s compare the first five innings of 2009:

CLICK TITLE TO READ 5TH 18 GAME BREAKDOWN ANALYSIS

Sat 8 Aug 2009
The 6th Inning is Over
Sam Hoff

Posted by shoff under Culture , Tigers

A full baseball season can be broken into Nine 18-game segments. I have termed these 18-game segments as an “inning” of a season. In the past I have provided analysis of each “inning” at www.detroittigersweblog.com. For 2009, I am going to post the analysis on my own blog www.samhoff.com.

Let’s compare the first six innings of 2009:
(CLICK TITLE TO READ in-depth 6TH 18 GAME BREAKDOWN ANALYSIS)


The sixth inning saw the Tigers finish 10-8 for the 3rd time in 2009. The Tigers were outscored by 4 runs, but helped by a 7-3 record in one and two run games. Interestingly, the Tigers had identical 29-25 records in the first two thirds of the 2009 season, but digging deeper you find that the Tigers outscored their opponents by 33 in the first third, but were outscored by 9 in the second third.

The last third of the season is going to be critical for the Tigers and especially Jim Leyland. The Tigers under Leyland (2005 to 2009) have a combined .533 winning percentage in the first 54 games of the seasons. They have a combined .570 winning percentage in the middle third of seasons. In the final third of seasons, they have a combined .407 winning percentage. In fact, their worst performance in every single year has been in the last third. Many people have a lot of respect for Jim Leyland, but he consistently seems to lose his team down the stretch. I sincerely hope 2009 proves to be different.

Starting Pitching: In the ten games Verlander, Jackson, and Porcello started the Tigers were 8-2. The two other wins were the game Eddie Bonine was called up from Toledo and gave a respectable performance in the second half of a double header verses the White Sox, and a 10-8 win against the Twins where Galarraga was far from sharp. Washburn was swapped for French to try to reverse this trend, though it didn’t work on the first try. For the season, the Tigers are 40-25 when the big-3 (Verlander, Jackson, and Porcello) pitch. They are 18-25 in all other games.

Bullpen: The bullpen has continued to improve. The 3.44 bullpen ERA in the inning was a season best performance and came on the heels of the previous season best (3.66). Rodney is still getting the job done, though he creates some anxious moments. Lyon, Perry, and Ni were all sharp. Seay is going through a bit of a slump. Miner is performing mostly in low leverage situations, though he did get a shaky save in 12 inning affair with Cleveland. Fien had a nice debut against the White Sox, but then pitched his way back to Toledo.

Offense: The offense performed better in the 6th inning than in the 5th inning. Their 4.56 runs/game is slightly below the 4.84 league average for 2009. They were building momentum through the inning as they scored 52 runs in the last 9 games after scoring 30 runs in the first 9 games of the inning. Granderson, Cabrera, and Thomas were all very effective. Polanco seems to have his old stroke back and Carlos Guillen has been a welcomed addition to the lineup. Magglio Ordonez was not his old self, but was slightly improved. Brandon Inge has fallen off recently as he has been nursing a sore knee and the shortstop platoon of Santiago and Everett continue to stink offensively. In two games, Alex Avila had as many doubles, one more HR, and only two less RBI than the backup catchers (Treanor, Sardinha, and Ryan) had through the first 106 games.

After back to back home 2-1 losses to Seattle in games 2 and 3 of the 6th inning, the Tigers stood tied with the White Sox. After that, three straight home wins against the same White Sox built the lead to 3 games which is where it currently stands. The Tigers have picked up a quality fourth starter in Washburn, have a healthy Carlos Guillen, and a couple of veterans in Polanco and Ordonez who seem to be regaining their strokes while having millions of dollars personally riding on a good late season performance. The Tigers seem to be positioned for a good late season run, but only time will tell if they reverse their trend of collapses.

Thu 27 Aug 2009
The 7th Inning is Over
Sam Hoff

Posted by shoff under Culture , Tigers

A full baseball season can be broken into Nine 18-game segments. I have termed these 18-game segments as an “inning” of a season. In the past I have provided analysis of each “inning” at www.detroittigersweblog.com. For 2009, I am going to post the analysis on my own blog www.samhoff.com.

Let’s compare the first seven innings of 2009:
(CLICK TITLE TO READ in-depth 7TH 18 GAME BREAKDOWN ANALYSIS)

The seventh inning saw the Tigers finish 9-9. The Tigers started out the inning 1-4 after losing the first 3 games in Boston which included a controversial brawl and the Rick Porcello suspension. The Tigers went a respectable 8-5 after that while outscoring their opponents 54-46. The Tiger’s gained in the Central division race as the Twins (10-8) and the White Sox (7-10) had their own struggles.



Starting Pitching: The Tigers starting pitching was pretty mediocre (4.75 era). Justin Verlander continues to roll up strikeouts (31 in 27.2 innings) and his 2-0 win against Boston on August 13 may be the turning point in the Tigers season.Galarraga was pretty effective in 2 starts then was strangely sent down to Toledo with elbow inflammation. Rick Porcello only pitched 12 innings thanks impart to his 2nd inning ejection at Boston. Washburn was very effective for a guy who gave up 7 HRs in 26 innings. After having no run support all year, Edwin Jackson got 2 wins despite pitching very ineffectively.

Bullpen: The bullpen continued to be effective. Eliminating Lambert and Dolsi’s 3 horrendous outings the bullpen posted a 2.78 ERA. Fernando Rodney continues to pitch well as an unearned run lead to his only loss. Seay, Lyon, Ni, and Perry were all effective as middle relievers. Zach Miner took 33% of the Tiger’s loses in the 7th inning and seems to be best suited for low leverage situations.

Offense: The offense continues to perform below expectations. Thank God for Miguel Cabrera who like last year, really seems to be heating up in towards the end of the year. Magglio is showing signs of life as 6 extra base hits and Clete Thomas’ 20 strikeouts in 46 ABs seem to make it apparent that Maggs will get his 18m option (he needs 55 more ABs in the remaining 36 games). Guillen, Granderson, and Polanco all get passing offensive grades for the 7th inning. Ryan Raburn hit well, but is now officially categorized as a butcher at 3B as a 3-error effort against KC on August 16 brought his career fielding percentage to .811 at that position. Avila proved he is human, but you have to love the fact that he coaxed 5 walks in his 30 plate appearances. Ramon Santiago seems to be winning the year long shortstop battle with Everett as he has hit much better and has a slightly better range factor for the season. Brandon Inge is not hitting at all, but pretty much has to be kept in the lineup for his glove. Gerald Laird’s offense continues to disappoint despite his good defense. Thames has been relegated to playing only against lefty starters. The Tigers were rumored to have traded for Aubrey Huff, but it doesn’t seem that he has shown up yet!

The 7th inning featured 4 games at Boston and a 6 game road trip to the west coast where the Tigers have traditionally struggled. A 9-9 record and increasing the lead in the central are positive signs. The next inning features 12 home games and only seven games against a team with a winning record (all vs. TB). The Tigers need to make hay in the 8th inning to build a cushion going into the last inning which will feature 13 games against Minnesota and Chicago. As pointed out in previous posts, history is not on their side. But with a relatively healthy team, and a favorable schedule, Leyland will have no excuses for not winning the central division.

good analysis - these are my concerns, too.