2008 Final Elias Rankings

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Final Elias Rankings - American League Catchers

As a warning, you will know less after reading this post than you did before. I'll start by posting the rankings. I wouldn't put any stock at all into Rodriguez, Zaun, and Olivo's status without reading on.

Name	Type	Total Score
Joe Mauer	A	88.940
Victor Martinez	A	88.479
Jorge Posada	A	83.410
A.J. Pierzynski	A	78.341
Jason Varitek	A	76.037
Ivan Rodriguez	A	72.350
Ramon Hernandez	B	71.889
Dioner Navarro	B	70.046
Mike Napoli	B	67.281
Kurt Suzuki	B	65.438
Kenji Johjima	B	64.516
Gregg Zaun	B	57.604
Miguel Olivo	B	57.604
Kelly Shoppach		57.143
Gerald Laird		55.760
Mike Redmond		54.608
Rod Barajas		54.378
John Buck		52.074
Dave Ross		51.613
Jamie Burke		47.005
Jose Molina		38.940
Jeff Mathis		37.327
Jarrod Saltalamacchia		35.945
Jeff Clement		35.023
Rob Bowen		28.111
Kevin Cash		23.963
Toby Hall		23.502
Shawn Riggans		21.198
Guillermo Quiroz		18.664
Sal Fasano		11.290
Dane Sardinha		11.290
Vance Wilson		0.230

So, Ivan Rodriguez overtook Ramon Hernandez for the final Type A spot...

or did he?

Let's take a look at how Rodriguez and Hernandez arrived at their rankings.

* For days on the disabled list, Pudge spent seven days on suspension while Hernandez had two stints last year that I have adding up to 39. Therefore, for Rodriguez each counting stat will be multiplied by (364/357) and for Hernandez (364/325).
* In plate appearances, Hernandez finished with 1019.2 and Rodriguez with 955.4. Neither of them are close to anybody else, so I am certain that Hernandez will get 28 of the possible 31 points here while Rodriguez will get 26.
* Moving on to home runs, I have Hernandez in ninth place with 26.9, behind A.J. Pierzynski (27.1), John Buck (27.2), and Jorge Posada (27.5). It would take three more DL days for Hernandez to make up the ground on Pierzynski. If I miscounted on those days, Rodriguez and Hernandez would be tied. For now, I have Hernandez picking up 23 and Rodriguez 19 here.
* On to RBI's, where Hernandez's 142.2 is good for third (29/31) among catchers. Rodriguez, meanwhile is in the middle of a pack. At 99.9, he is just a shade behind Kenji Johjima's 100 and just above Mike Napoli's 99.4. With one more suspended day, Rodriguez would overtake Johjima. With two less, Napoli would overtake him. I've got Napoli at the assumed limit of 60 days, so if I handled that part of the adjustment incorrectly, Napoli could be overtaking Rodriguez there. For now, Rodriguez gets 22 points for RBI's.
* To batting average, where the DL adjustment doesn't matter. Hernandez hit .258 (18/31) while Rodriguez hit .279 (25/31).
* OBP also has no dependence on the missed time adjustment. Hernandez got on base at a .315 clip (19/31) while Rodriguez only posted a .303 mark (17/31).
* Now to fielding percentage, which is only counted at the catcher's position. Rodriguez put up a .993 mark, good for 13th (19/31 points), while Hernandez put up a .989 rate (12/31).
* Finally, we go to assists. Again, only assists accumulated at catcher count towards the rankings. Pudge, at 110.1 ranked third among the pool of players for 29 of 31 points. Hernandez, at 99.68 finished fifth behind Pierzynski (100.3) and above Mathis (99). For Hernandez, it would have taken two more days on the disabled list to have overtaken Pierzynski.

In total, Rodriguez's score is (26 19 22 25 17 19 29)/(7*31) or 72.350% (157/217). Hernandez got (28 23 29 18 19 12 27)/(7*31) or 71.889% (156/157).

Hernandez was just one point behind Rodriguez. To summarize where he could have made up those points.

* With three more days, Hernandez could have passed Pierzynski in home runs.
* With Mike Napoli getting more than 60 days for his DL adjustment, thereby overtaking Ivan Rodriguez.
* With Rodriguez losing two days off of his missed time adjustment for suspensions, Napoli would pass him in home runs.
* Finally, with two more days on the DL Hernandez would pass Pierzynski in assists.

Two of those things need to happen in order for Rodriguez not to be Type A, as if they are tied they would both be in the top 20 percent. It's a similar situation for the Type B guys, as any adjustment in one guy's DL Time could cost them Type B status. For Rodriguez, I am about 80-90% sure he will be a Type A. If you are curious about Olivo or Zaun, I would wait until the actual rankings come out and ignore this. All I can say is that at least one will be Type B, but can't conclusively give a reasonable answer there.
Posted by Eddie B at 11:18 AM

Wednesday, October 15, 2008


Final Elias Rankings - American League First Basemen


The first thing you will notice is that I haven't included Type information with these guys. I really want to drill home how I've arrived at these numbers and am going to post the positions separately, so when I get questions like "How is Sean Casey ranked above Milton Bradley?" (He may not be, but I believe he was during one of the earlier iterations), I can explain it easier by pointing out that Casey is compared to other first basemen to get his numerical score and Bradley to other designated hitters to get his. Their numerical scores are not related at all, they are just grouped together in the rankings. So, here are the players on American League rosters August 31 who played more games at first base than anywhere else in 2007 and 2008 ranked using PA, AVG, OBP, HR, and RBI:

Name	TotalScore
Mark Teixeira	98.750
Carlos Pena	85.000
Justin Morneau	83.750
Kevin Youkilis	81.250
Paul Konerko	61.250
Ryan Garko	58.750
Sean Casey	55.000
Jason Giambi	53.750
Lyle Overbay	51.250
Kevin Millar	47.500
Ross Gload	38.750
Chris Davis	36.250
Daric Barton	28.750
Jeff Bailey	23.125
Robb Quinlan	20.000
Miguel Cairo	15.000
Bryan LaHair	11.875

I will post their type information after posting the scores for outfielders and designated hitters and combining the information. I'm really focusing on transparency because I know these rankings will not be 100% accurate.
Posted by Eddie B at 1:19 PM

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Final Elias Projections - AL Second Basemen


The statistics used for the rest of the infielders are PA, AVG, OBP, HR, RBI, fielding percentage, and total chances (PO A E). Because of the inclusion of fielding statistics, it is much harder for an infielder to post a dominating score than it is for an outfielder or first baseman. You can see that with Pedroia topping this group at 84.472.

Name	Total Score
Dustin Pedroia	84.472
Placido Polanco	83.851
Brian Roberts	80.745
Ian Kinsler	79.503
Robinson Cano	72.671
Mark Ellis	65.839
Akinori Iwamura	65.217
Jose Lopez	63.354
Mark Grudzielanek	63.043
Aaron Hill	61.491
Howie Kendrick	59.006
Maicer Izturis	55.590
Asdrubal Cabrera	51.553
Alexei Ramirez	42.236
Joe Inglett	41.615
Jamey Carroll	36.335
Alexi Casilla	32.298
Alberto Callaspo	31.988
Esteban German	31.677
Joaquin Arias	25.466
Josh Barfield	24.845
Cliff Pennington	22.050
Sean Rodriguez	18.323
Eric Patterson	6.832

Grudzielanek is the only free agent from this group, as Carroll and Ellis have both re-signed with their respective clubs. Tigers fans should pay close attention to second basemen next year, as it will have an effect on Placido Polanco's free agent classification.
Posted by Eddie B at 12:56 PM

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Final Elias Projections - AL Third Basemen


Just a reminder that I am doing each position separately in order to better illustrate how the rankings are calculated. Each player is given a score relative to the other players at their position, and then the players in the three positions are ranked according to the score they obtained against players in their own position. It is only then when it is determined whether a player is Type A or Type B. Third basemen use the same statistics as second: PA, BA, OBP, HR, RBI, FP, TC.

Name	TotalScore
Alex Rodriguez	96.104
Mike Lowell	86.364
Miguel Cabrera	77.273
Melvin Mora	75.974
Adrian Beltre	73.377
Scott Rolen	66.883
Chone Figgins	64.935
Alex Gordon	64.286
Jose Bautista	57.792
Evan Longoria	55.195
Brandon Inge	49.351
Hank Blalock	49.351
Eric Chavez	42.208
Ramon Vazquez	41.558
Jack Hannahan	42.208
Joe Crede	36.364
Nick Punto	36.364
Brian Buscher	34.416
Wilson Betemit	26.623
Willy Aybar	25.974
Matt Tolbert	17.532
Andy Marte	15.584
Brandon Wood	14.286

What's amazing is that Miguel Cabrera would have a 94.1 score if he counted as a first baseman. He was hurt by his woeful fielding percentage at third base, and the low amount of chances at the position because of his move to first this year. You'll see similar problems plaguing Carlos Guillen when I post the shortstops.
Posted by Eddie B at 9:25 AM

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Final Elias Projections - Al Shortstops

Michael Young	88.571
Orlando Cabrera	86.286
Derek Jeter	84.000
Jhonny Peralta	82.857
Edgar Renteria	80.571
Carlos Guillen	69.143
Brendan Harris	61.143
Juan Uribe	58.286
Marco Scutaro	57.714
Jason Bartlett	57.143
Bobby Crosby	54.857
Mike Aviles	54.857
Yuniesky Betancourt	54.286
Julio Lugo	52.000
Ramon Santiago	43.429
Erick Aybar	38.571
Jed Lowrie	36.571
John McDonald	34.857
Tony Pena	33.714
Alex Cora	31.429
Adam Everett	30.571
Cody Ransom	28.571
Alex Cintron	25.714
Ben Zobrist	24.571
Juan Castro	21.143
Jason Smith	9.143

The same categories as second and third base are used, with defensive categories only counting for their time at shortstop. The most interesting part of this list, to me, is that Ramon Santiago placed third in OBP among all of these players with one of the players above him being Cody Ransom and his low playing time induced .400 mark.

Now that third base, second base, and shortstop have all been calculated, we can see who is Type A and Type B.
Posted by Eddie B at 9:40 AM

Wednesday, October 22, 2008


Final Elias Projections - AL 2B/3B/SS

Name	Type	Score
Alex Rodriguez	A	96.104
Michael Young	A	88.571
Mike Lowell	A	86.364
Orlando Cabrera	A	86.286
Dustin Pedroia	A	84.472
Derek Jeter	A	84.000
Placido Polanco	A	83.851
Jhonny Peralta	A	82.857
Brian Roberts	A	80.745
Edgar Renteria	A	80.571
Ian Kinsler	A	79.503
Miguel Cabrera	A	77.273
Melvin Mora	A	75.974
Adrian Beltre	A	73.377
Robinson Cano	B	72.671
Carlos Guillen	B	69.143
Scott Rolen	B	66.883
Mark Ellis	B	65.839
Akinori Iwamura	B	65.217
Chone Figgins	B	64.935
Alex Gordon	B	64.286
Jose Lopez	B	63.354
Mark Grudzielanek	B	63.043
Aaron Hill	B	61.491
Brendan Harris	B	61.143
Howie Kendrick	B	59.006
Juan Uribe	B	58.286
Jose Bautista	B	57.792
Marco Scutaro	B	57.714
Jason Bartlett		57.143
Maicer Izturis		55.590
Evan Longoria		55.195
Bobby Crosby		54.857
Mike Aviles		54.857
Yuniesky Betancourt		54.286
Julio Lugo		52.000
Asdrubal Cabrera		51.553
Brandon Inge		49.351
Hank Blalock		49.351
Ramon Santiago		43.429
Alexei Ramirez		42.236
Eric Chavez		42.208
Jack Hannahan		42.208
Joe Inglett		41.615
Ramon Vazquez		41.558
Erick Aybar		38.571
Jed Lowrie		36.571
Joe Crede		36.364
Nick Punto		36.364
Jamey Carroll		36.335
John McDonald		34.857
Brian Buscher		34.416
Tony Pena		33.714
Alexi Casilla		32.298
Alberto Callaspo		31.988
Esteban German		31.677
Alex Cora		31.429
Adam Everett		30.571
Cody Ransom		28.571
Wilson Betemit		26.623
Willy Aybar		25.974
Alex Cintron		25.714
Joaquin Arias		25.466
Josh Barfield		24.845
Ben Zobrist		24.571
Cliff Pennington		22.050
Juan Castro		21.143
Sean Rodriguez		18.323
Matt Tolbert		17.532
Andy Marte		15.584
Brandon Wood		14.286
Jason Smith		9.143
Eric Patterson		6.832

There you have it. Edgar Renteria clings on to his Type A status by a margin that appears to be safe. Juan Uribe is the only one whose status is close enough to create some doubt, but I am pretty confident that these will be pretty close to accurate.
Posted by Eddie B at 9:47 AM

Monday, October 13, 2008

Final Elias Rankings - American League Relief Pitchers

click link above to see list.