NL Cy Young Award Race

One of the most interesting races this year is for the NL Young Award. I'm not going to list Sabathia or Harden because they haven't been in the NL all year. The front runners...

1. Tim Lincecum - 12-3 - 2.68 ERA - 157 2/3 innings - 175 K - 58 BB - 1.23 WHIP - 160 ERA+
2. Brandon Webb - 16-4 - 2.93 ERA - 163 innings - 134 K - 39 BB - 1.12 WHIP - 155 ERA+
3. Ryan Dempster - 12-5 - 2.93 ERA - 150 2/3 innigns - 133 K - 59 BB - 1.16 WHIP - 154 ERA+
4. Edinson Volquez - 13-5 - 2.93 ERA - 138 innings - 141 K - 63 BB - 1.33 WHIP - 153 ERA+
5. Dan Haren - 12-6 - 3.00 ERA - 159 innings - 147 K - 27 BB - 1.03 WHIP - 151 ERA+

Others to consider: Jake Peavy, Johan Santana, Ben Sheets, Chad Billingsley, and Carlos Zambrano.

*stats are as of games played through Saturday 8/9/08

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The above list in that order is who I'd put down on my ballot if the season were to end right now.

Webb will win since the voters only care about wins.

My vote would go to Lincecum and not just because I'm biased. Only Peavy has a better ERA but he has nowhere near enough innings to be deserving of it. Lincecum has the best ERA+ which matters more anyways. Lincecum has the most K's (by a ton) and he's right up there in innings pitched and wins despite playing for a terrible team.

Ah you added a poll to this.

I agree about Peavy. He only has started 20 games while others have started 23/24. That's why his innings are down.

I'm surprised Santana doesn't have more strikeouts. He only has 135; I thought he'd be closer to the league lead.

bobrob2004 wrote:

Ah you added a poll to this.

I figured polls were easier for people that don't like to write. There's more voters (3) than posters in this thread (2).

I wonder who I voted for!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I like Johan, but I think Lincecum will end up winning since San Francisco is a bit larger (I think) and there are actually some fans who know a thing or two about baseball.
I like Dempster though.

Lincecum is even more deserving after today...

He threw 132 pitches for starters. More importantly he's given up 50 ER in 185.3 IP which gives him a 2.43 (or 2.42806... to be more precise) which easily leads the NL and is EXACTLY the same as Cliff Lee's (50ER/185.3 IP) for the ML lead.

He leads the NL in K's by a landslide (39 to be exact) and has 13 more than anyone else for the ML lead. He's 4th in the NL in IP (and only 4.7 IP behind the leader), he has the highest W-L% in the NL (despite playing for a terrible team), and his 15 wins are tied for 2nd in the National League (again, on a terrible team).

Webb didn't help his case at all today...

3.1IP, 8R (6ER)

His last 2 starts: 8IP, 12 ER :puke2:

He's opening the door for Lincecum...

And those stupid voters better not vote for Sabathia I don't care how good he is - half a season doesn't win the Cy Young!

Santana is closing the gap on Lincecum. I think it's a 2-man race now between those two. Sheets, Peavy and Dempster would probably round off the top 5.

I agree with your assessment. Lincecum goes tonight and needs a big game. Sadly, I'm certain the voters won't agree with us. According to the voters it's between Webb and Sabathia even though Sabathia has only pitched half the year in the NL

I guess 9-0 in 10 starts is more valuable than 30-some starts

catbox_9 wrote:

I agree with your assessment. Lincecum goes tonight and needs a big game. Sadly, I'm certain the voters won't agree with us. According to the voters it's between Webb and Sabathia even though Sabathia has only pitched half the year in the NL

I guess 9-0 in 10 starts is more valuable than 30-some starts

Sabathia hasn't pitched enough in the NL to be considered. If a hitter can't get a batting title for switching leagues, then a pitcher should be able to get a Cy Young when switching leagues. Although, if he were traded in May it might be a different story.

And Haren has too high of an ERA to be considered. If he has a strong finish he could wind up bumping Dempster. Wins mean nothing!

bobrob2004 wrote:

catbox_9 wrote:

I agree with your assessment. Lincecum goes tonight and needs a big game. Sadly, I'm certain the voters won't agree with us. According to the voters it's between Webb and Sabathia even though Sabathia has only pitched half the year in the NL

I guess 9-0 in 10 starts is more valuable than 30-some starts

Sabathia hasn't pitched enough in the NL to be considered. If a hitter can't get a batting title for switching leagues, then a pitcher should be able to get a Cy Young when switching leagues. Although, if he were traded in May it might be a different story.

And Haren has too high of an ERA to be considered. If he has a strong finish he could wind up bumping Dempster. Wins mean nothing!

I'm not saying how it should be, but how it is. Watch ESPN - they're all campaigning for Sabathia to win the Cy Young and pretty much everyone says it's Webb's to win since he has the most wins. I mean wins are the only stat that matters when judging a pitcher's effectiveness

After yet another brilliant start even ESPN says Lincecum should win

Their NL rankings:
1. Lincecum
2. Webb
3. Valverde
4. Dempster
5. Santana
6. Volquez
7. Lidge
8. Sheets
9. Billingsley
10. Haren

The problem with their Cy Predictor is the formula awards 12 points to pitchers on playoff team (pro-rated based on current standings) as a "victor bonus". Lincecum has 162.8 points total and Webb has 154.0. It's not even that close though - Webb has 5 victory bonus points and Lincecum has 0.

Realistically, Lincecum deserves a victory bonus....
Lincecum's record: 16-3 (.842)
Giant's record in all other games: 47-77 (.379)
DIFFERENCE: +.463

Brandon Webb's record: 19-7 (.731)
Diamondback's record in all other games: 52-65 (.444)
DIFFERENCE: +.287

Also, Webb has more decisions but don't let that fool you - Lincecum has more innings.

Lidge, well besides losing the game for the NL is having a good year

Leave Verde alone, he tries and is most of the time successful.

I would have thought they were crazy or been confused if Chad had made the list.

Valverde is a beast.

Lincecum should win in a landslide.

He's 17-3 for a team that's 67-81. That's actually quite historic:

Pitchers who were 13 games better than .500 on a team that was at least 13 games below .500
Steve Carlton went 27-10 for the 1972 Phillies (59-97).
Eddie Rommell went 27-13 for the 1922 Athletics (65-89).
Dazzy Vance went 22-9 for the 1925 Brooklyn Dodgers (68-85).

Most ESPN-type experts say it's between Lincecum and Webb. Let's take a look....

ERA: Lincecum's is the best in the NL (2.43) while Webb's is 0.85 higher.
Lincecum has pitched 2 more innings. Despite pitching more innings, Lincecum has allowed 19 fewer runs (with a 2.43 ERA Lincecum would have to pitch 70.3 more innings to give up 19 ER).

K's: Lincecum leads all of baseball (237) and Webb isn't even close (168).

Wins: Webb has 3 more, BUT he also has 4 more losses. Lincecum's bullpen has blown 5 would-be wins (Webb's has blown 1) and 6 times Lincecum has pitched 6+ innings and had the Giants score 0/1 runs with him in there (that's happened to Webb twice). Lincecum could have arguably 11 more wins...Webb could have 3 more.

This shouldn't be close, but too many voters are in love with wins so we'll see....

Sabathia's Cy Young chances are officially dead. He lost today for the first time as a Brewer. As he was nowhere near deserving of the award to begin with due to just half a season's worth of work, his only shot was going undefeated in the NL. That won't happen so it's down to Lincecum and Webb. While there are other worthy candidates (some more worthy than Webb) the voters are only going to look at Lincecum and Webb.

Go Lincecum!

catbox_9 wrote:

Sabathia's Cy Young chances are officially dead. He lost today for the first time as a Brewer. As he was nowhere near deserving of the award to begin with due to just half a season's worth of work, his only shot was going undefeated in the NL. That won't happen so it's down to Lincecum and Webb. While there are other worthy candidates (some more worthy than Webb) the voters are only going to look at Lincecum and Webb.

Go Lincecum!

If Sabathia leads the Brewers to a WS title; He might get it

But the Brewers aren't gonna make the playoffs


Go Lincecum!

Keep on losin' Brewers! I hate pretty much every player on that team other than Ryan Braun for some reason.

I wish the Astros could end up winning the wild card, but I doubt we'll see that.

catbox_9 wrote:

Keep on losin' Brewers! I hate pretty much every player on that team other than Ryan Braun for some reason.

I wish the Astros could end up winning the wild card, but I doubt we'll see that.

If Selig didn't screw the Astros over by moving their games with the Cubs to Milwaukee!


Astros still got a shot!


I just voted for Lincecum!

Brandon Webb won yesterday

catbox_9 wrote:

Brandon Webb won yesterday

gs78 wrote:

catbox_9 wrote:

Brandon Webb won yesterday

Lincecum lost today. The race is over and the less-deserving candidate has it won.

Webb's not even the 2nd best pitcher in the league. Has everyone forgotten about Johan Santana?!

bobrob2004 wrote:

Webb's not even the 2nd best pitcher in the league. Has everyone forgotten about Johan Santana?!

Santana has the best ERA all the sudden .02 better than Lincecum

Too bad Santana doesn't have a shot at winning because voters remain retarded. I've heard all over the place how Santana is having a poor season - I guess only bad pitchers lead the league in ERA

Santana just pitched a 3-hit shutout, lowering his ERA to 2.53. Lincecum would have to do better than that tomorrow if he wants the award. Lincecum may even end up third if voters undeservedly vote Webb ahead of him.

It would be cool if Santana won it.

bobrob2004 wrote:

Santana just pitched a 3-hit shutout, lowering his ERA to 2.53. Lincecum would have to do better than that tomorrow if he wants the award. Lincecum may even end up third if voters undeservedly vote Webb ahead of him.

As he won't pitch 10+ innings Santana wins the ERA title

That stupid score in SF costs Lincecum that title. Lincecum's lone shot at the Cy Young is about gone. He'll never win a Cy Young or ERA title now. Oh well.

Here's how the votes will go (not SHOULD go....)

1. Webb (unanimous)
2. Lincecum
3. Santana

I say Lincecum beats Santana by a wide margin for second.

catbox_9 wrote:

bobrob2004 wrote:

Santana just pitched a 3-hit shutout, lowering his ERA to 2.53. Lincecum would have to do better than that tomorrow if he wants the award. Lincecum may even end up third if voters undeservedly vote Webb ahead of him.

As he won't pitch 10+ innings Santana wins the ERA title

That stupid score in SF costs Lincecum that title. Lincecum's lone shot at the Cy Young is about gone. He'll never win a Cy Young or ERA title now. Oh well.

Here's how the votes will go (not SHOULD go....)

1. Webb (unanimous)
2. Lincecum
3. Santana

I say Lincecum beats Santana by a wide margin for second.

Really? I say they put Santana ahead of Lincecum because Santana "plays for a winner."

Lincecum has more wins though and ERA is the most useless stat in baseball for some reason. Lincecum has the K's, too. It's better to go 5IP, 3ER, 15K, win than 9IP, 1H, 1UER, 1K, Loss according to most voters.