Biggest variable for Tigers in '08 is staying healthy

Friday, January 11, 2008

Analysis

Biggest variable for Tigers in '08 is staying healthy

Rogers needs to remain in rotation and an early return from Zumaya would help bullpen.

Lynn Henning / The Detroit News

Five ways in which the Tigers' 2008 season will be determined -- for better or for worse:

1. Age and health issues must swing in Detroit's favor: Two absences made the Tigers a second-place team last season and helped to put the Indians into the American League playoffs.

Kenny Rogers missed the first two months of the season after having arterial surgery in his left shoulder.

Gary Sheffield, who was on his way to more than 30 home runs and 100-plus RBIs, damaged his right shoulder in July and was virtually finished afterward.

Other losses were critical -- Joel Zumaya to a torn right finger tendon, Fernando Rodney to tendinitis -- but nothing sabotaged the Tigers like the losses of Rogers and Sheffield.

Rarely does any team get through a season without losing someone vital. If probabilities grab the Tigers there, no position player could prove more valuable than the now-displaced Brandon Inge, and no pitcher could be of greater assistance than right-hander Yorman Bazardo.

2. The starting rotation needs a comeback season: People sometimes forget that 2006's renaissance, which saw the Tigers slip from earlier oblivion into that season's World Series, was almost single-handedly delivered by Detroit's starting rotation. The Tigers got major boosts from Rogers and Justin Verlander as part of a broad effort that featured heavy-duty efforts from Jeremy Bonderman and Nate Robertson.

Too many people expect too little this season from Bonderman, who, if healthy, should be back to his 200-innings, 200-strikeouts profile of 2006. Robertson, who turned 30 in September, should commit to having his best season as a big-league pitcher.

That leaves the issue of Rogers' age and health, which at 43, is a legitimate concern. But given his athleticism and his remarkable pitching style, there's no reason to believe Rogers cannot win 15-18 games and pitch 200 innings.

Again, it all depends upon avoiding injury.

Rogers will be a centerpiece pitcher, as will Verlander, who likewise must stay healthy and continue on his steady path toward becoming the team's ace.

Willis is a hinge starter. If he pitches like the reliable, high-endurance No. 3 starter the Tigers need him to be, they will take a huge step toward amassing starting pitching prowess and depth that could unseat the Indians.

3. Zumaya's recovery could be a bonus that puts manager Jim Leyland's team over the top: No one knows how soon he will be ready to pitch again. No one seems able to say even if Zumaya will be able to pitch with the fire and intimidation he brought to the team in 2006, and late in the year, in 2007, after he recovered from his torn tendon.

But it's perfectly reasonable to believe the Tigers will need Zumaya and his high-octane power arsenal as quickly as it can be delivered, which even in a best-case scenario is probably not before the All-Star break.

The Tigers could hold it together with their current bullpen for several legitimate reasons:

Rodney figures to be healthy and should be a trustworthy set-up man, no matter how many fans cringe at the notion. Todd Jones, who turns 40 in three months, should -- emphasis on should -- be able to bob and weave his way to a 30-plus save season.

Francisco Cruceta might end up as the bullpen's biggest and most important surprise, much as Zumaya was two years ago.

4. Miguel Cabrera must stay in shape and play a solid third base: The Tigers are set up almost perfectly with respect to their position situations.

They have splendid up-the-middle defense with Placido Polanco anchoring second base and newcomer Edgar Renteria likely to make a significant difference at shortstop.

They have a savvy, skillful new first baseman in Carlos Guillen, who should find that his offense picks up a tick or two now that he no longer has to be concerned about shortstop.

It leaves third base, which will be home to the most electric new player the Tigers have welcomed since -- well, not even Pudge Rodriguez or Magglio Ordonez arrived in Detroit with the game-crushing potential Cabrera brings to the Tigers.

The only issue with a man just 24 years old is his physical conditioning. He was 265 pounds at one point last season. He did not play a solid third base. He needs to be a serious two-way player on a team that expects him to help get the Tigers into the World Series.

5. Winning a world championship should trump any other thought or objective:

It's no longer enough to talk about playing one game at a time. It's no longer in the Tigers' interests to hope they will be playing for something meaningful in September.

Apart from calamitous injuries, they should be there.

This time, this year, they need to resolve that they will not be satisfied with anything less than winning the World Series.