AL CENTRAL RACE: Why Tigers are far from a lock to win div.

AL CENTRAL RACE: Why Tigers are far from a lock to win division

January 10, 2008
JON PAUL MOROSI
INSIDE THE TIGERS

The presidential races and American League Central have something in common: Neither has been kind to front-runners.

The past three popular picks to win the division -- the 2005 Minnesota Twins, the 2006 Chicago White Sox and the 2007 Tigers -- failed to make the playoffs, a caveat to those with ironclad opinions on how the season will unfold.

As Rick Hahn, the White Sox assistant general manager, said Wednesday: "You can't count on a nine-point lead the day before the primary."

In all seriousness, though, who is the favorite to win the AL Central in 2008?

Tigers president/general manager Dave Dombrowski pointed to the Cleveland Indians, the defending division champions who fell one victory shy of the World Series.

"Cleveland has to be the favorite," Dombrowski said Wednesday. "They won the division. They have basically the same club coming back, and they made an addition to their bullpen with (Masahide) Kobayashi, who's a quality pitcher."

Yet others in the industry believe the Tigers will become the fourth team in as many years to win the AL Central. The Free Press polled major league scouts and executives this week, and 14 of the 18 respondents picked the Tigers to finish first. The other four chose Cleveland, largely because of the Indians' strong rotation.

But if recent history is any guide, an unheralded team will enter the race.

Four clubs from the division have reached the playoffs the past three seasons -- a first in the wild-card-era American League.

"That," Dombrowski said, "tells you how balanced this division is."

The AL Central is better now than it was in 2005, when the White Sox won the World Series, and also has improved since the end of last season.For their part, the Tigers added All-Stars at third base (Miguel Cabrera), shortstop (Edgar Renteria) and on the mound (Dontrelle Willis), as well as veteran outfielder Jacque Jones.

"On paper, it (the division) is much stronger than it was at this time last year," Kansas City general manager Dayton Moore said, "and certainly Dave Dombrowski has a lot to do with that."

The Twins and Royals added middle-of-the-order hitters in outfielders Delmon Young and Jose Guillen, respectively, while the White Sox landed shortstop Orlando Cabrera and outfielder Nick Swisher in two trades.Tigers manager Jim Leyland predicted at the end of last season that Chicago would be a much improved team in 2008. ("You can mark my words," he said then.) He may be right. Cabrera, a two-time Gold Glove winner, batted .301 for the Angels last year, and Swisher should provide the combination of patience and power the White Sox lacked in 2007.

"For them to get (Orlando) Cabrera was as big as us getting Renteria," said Tigers assistant GM Al Avila. "And now they've got Swisher. They have a great lineup. They're already better than they were last year."

Hahn, a University of Michigan graduate, said the acquisition of Swisher wasn't a direct response to the Tigers' blockbuster deal for Cabrera and Willis.

"We're certainly affected by Detroit improving offensively this off-season, but, at the same time, it's been Kenny's mantra to win the World Series every year," Hahn said, referring to GM Kenny Williams.

"It's about having a team that can compete deep into October. Adding Swisher helps us get back to the championship level."

When asked to name a favorite to win the division, Moore acknowledged that the Tigers have the most talented roster among the teams. Then he added, in reference to all teams in the division, "We all know how important the consistency and health of the starting pitching will be."

Moore is right. The Indians had the best rotation in the division last year -- as did the '06 Tigers, '05 White Sox, and '04 Twins. All four of those teams reached the postseason.

As a result, one National League general manager predicted the AL Central race will amount to a competition between pitchers hoping to have bounce-back seasons: Cleveland's Jake Westbrook and Cliff Lee vs. the Tigers' Dontrelle Willis and Kenny Rogers.

The Indians appear to have the more reliable rotation, headlined by C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona, while the Tigers have the high-risk, high-reward type.

If Willis rediscovers his 2005 form, and if Rogers, Jeremy Bonderman and Nate Robertson perform at their respective 2006 levels, then the Tigers arguably will have the best rotation in baseball.

If they instead repeat their 2007 seasons, yet another "favorite" will have a difficult time winning what might be baseball's best top-to-bottom division.

Contact JON PAUL MOROSI at 313-223-4097 or jmorosi@freepress.com. Check out his Tigers blog at www.freep.com/sports.

Thursday, January 10, 2008

Tigers' Leyland juggles lineup options

Lynn Henning / The Detroit News

How will Jim Leyland manage what appears to be an abundance of offensive talent in 2008? There's still plenty of time for the Tigers manager to decide ahead of the season opener against Kansas City on March 31 at Comerica Park.

He must somehow figure out where to ideally place in his order the likes of Curtis Granderson, Placido Polanco, Gary Sheffield, Magglio Ordonez, Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Guillen, Edgar Renteria, Jacque Jones and Pudge Rodriguez.

"Everybody's making way too much of it," Leyland said this week as he prepared to join the team for this weekend's TigerFest and for the caravan that hits the road Sunday. "It's pretty obvious how it looks. I don't think it's going to be anything mind-boggling.

"Everybody in Detroit pretty much has the same lineup I have."

Leyland understands that most armchair managers will have center fielder Granderson at leadoff, followed by second baseman Polanco.

Batting third will be either the incumbent, Sheffield (designated hitter), or Cabrera, the 24-year-old slugging third baseman. Ordonez (right field) should remain at cleanup, with either Cabrera or Sheffield batting fifth, at least on most days.

Guillen, who is moving to first base, most likely will be Leyland's regular choice at the sixth spot. The team's new shortstop, Renteria, is expected to bat seventh, just ahead of Jones, the new left fielder, and two spots ahead of Rodriguez, Detroit's catcher who will assume the unusual status of being a No. 9 hitter destined for the Hall of Fame.

"There's no secret to it," Leyland said of his batting order, which some observers believe is capable of producing 1,000 runs in 2008, an astounding number only seven big-league teams have reached in a single season. "I just haven't made a decision yet on how I'm going to hit those three guys in the middle. I'm not sure about that yet."

GO TIGERS!